2008 AFC Quartley Report - Q1

I'm not big on power rankings, because they change so often, and to me they don't represent a true evaluation of a team and what you can expect going forward. Instead I present you this, a review of how I saw the first quarter of the season for each team, and what I perceive to be the outlook for them for the next quarter should they continue the same trends that they have started with. I should provide an update at the midpoint of the season. Now let's get started.
Boy has there been a shift in the balance of power between the two conferences. The preseason super powers (Colts, Pats, Chargers) have all been hit with the injury bug to impact players (Bob Sanders, Tom Brady, Shawne Merriman) and as a result aren't looking so super anymore. All of the playoff teams from last season with the exception of Tennessee have been mediocre at best. Teams that once looked to be left out of the playoff picture once again have been given hope. And as expected, some of these teams are stepping up. This will definitely make for more interesting football down the stretch.

AFC North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
They’re lucky to be in the driver’s seat of the division right now after the much needed comeback home win over Baltimore. Since that Week 1 blowout over a bad Texans team they haven’t looked like a serious threat on offense. The offensive line is having problems protecting Roethlisberger, throwing their whole pass offense out of rhythm. Now they have had both Willie Parker and Rashad Mendenhall catch some injuries. They need to figure out how to start putting points on the board. The defense has been doing its job of shutting down the opponent’s run game and creating some key turnovers. They have 3 tough games in the second quarter for them, @Jacksonville, which as always will be a game as physical as they come. Luckily they have the bye week afterwards to re-energize and then go back on the road against divisional foe, an improving Cincinnati, but right after that they meet up with another good pass rushing team, the possibly undefeated Giants at home. They would be very fortunate to be 5-2 by the midpoint.
2.Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
Their play has been surprising to say the least, as they had the unfortunate honor of getting an early week 2 bye week, causing their first 3 games to be against all of their divisional opponents. It will interesting to see if the team can stay fresh and not fade away playing 15 straight weeks. Joe Flacco hasn’t put up flashy numbers, but to say that he hasn’t played well is a severe understatement. He is built with all the tools to be a good quarterback in the league, both physically and mentally. He is a gamer for sure, but as always the standout in Baltimore is their defense. They are malicious with QB pressure, shut down the run better than anyone (I lost count in the number of games they haven’t allowed a 100 yard rusher), and if someone on the opposing team crosses the line of scrimmage they get punished for it. They need to get McGahee healthy and if not try and figure out the right game plan to establish the run with McClain/Rice. Next week they face a harsh matchup against the Titans at home. Then have to travel to Indy and Miami before returning home against the Raiders. 3 wins would be ideal here, but I only see them being able to pull out 2 maximum, and that of course is the last two.
3.Cleveland Browns (1-3)
After last year’s surprising 10-6 finish the Brownies were supposed to be likely to finally get back to the playoffs and maybe even win the division. After putting those speculations to rest getting blown out the first week against Dallas, they too had 3 straight games against their entire division. Their struggles can be attributed to an absurd lack of defense, but also the inability to get the aging Jamal Lewis back to last season’s form. But the main problem seems to lie in the decline of Derek Anderson. To his credit he hasn’t had Joe Jurevicius or Donte Stallworth play at all this year, but even with his big guns Edwards and Winslow still out there he has been making poor decisions resulting in many stalled drives. The Browns catch a bye to prepare an extra week for the Giants at home, then back-to-back road games with Washington and Jacksonville. Let’s be serious here: they’re staring at the face of 1-6, and likely the death of their season. By the end of October they should be completely out of the picture.
4.Cincinnati Bengals (0-4)
Coming out of September without a single win makes the playoffs nothing but a pipe dream. This was a team that made a complete 180 since Marvin Lewis took over, made the playoffs for the first time in years, and was just a decent few defenders away from being contenders. Now that 180 has come full circle. They got rid of their starting running back, still can’t play defense, and made the mistake of NOT opting for chemotherapy for that cancer #85. They played their best game by staying competitive against a good Giants team on a whim of desperation trying to save their season. Then in a move that I believe shows that they’ve completely given up, as a “precaution” they sit Carson Palmer, the only player keeping them from 0-16, even though he said he could play, in a divisional matchup and their best chance at a win. It doesn’t get easier for them at all. In October they have to travel to Dallas and the Jets, return home to play the Steelers then go back out to Houston. I don’t know if Marvin Lewis can even last until the midpoint.

AFC South

1.Tennessee Titans (4-0)
Playing the best football out of any team right now. After a close divisional win against the Jags (Vince Young played some of that game though), they did what any good team must do, and that is blow out the bad teams on your schedule. Clearly the best defense in the league, the front seven is stellar at stopping the run/pressuring the QB, and any secondary coached under Jeff Fisher is going to perform. The big upside to this year’s is that it’s also creating turnovers, only allowing 11 points per game. In addition to a pretty good 1-2 punch of LenDale/Chris Johnson, this team has found new life behind Kerry Collins, who is actually showing some mobility when he drops back. This is the kind of team you don’t want to play against in the playoffs. Their next game at Baltimore all comes down to protecting the football and Kerry Collins from that Ravens defense. Then after the bye week they travel to Kansas City, an unpredictable team especially when they’re home, and then back to Nashville home for their first game against the Colts. 7-0 isn’t out of the question for this team, but I think they will pick up a loss somewhere in that stretch.
2.Jacksonville (2-2)
Rebounded well from a slow start to win two straight divisional games to finish the month, including a big win in Indianapolis. Haven’t been as impressive as the last few seasons, and this was the year that they were supposed to surmount the Colts. They haven’t been as physically dominant this year, and don’t look to hot against the pass. They managed to make Matt Schaub look good against them and had to grind out an OT win in week 4. Garrard needs to revert to last year’s form where he played very smart football, protecting the ball and being efficient on 3^rd down. The Jags start October against a depleted Pittsburgh offense, so protecting the football against that Steelers defense will be key. Then they travel to the Denver before heading in the bye week and closing out the month at home against the Browns. I see them at 4-3 going into November.

3.Indianapolis (1-2)
Very interesting to see this team in the bottom half of the division with Peyton Manning as their quarterback. They can’t seem to find the proper balance between the run and pass, although you have to consider who they’ve played. Chicago, Minnesota, and Jacksonville are all great run-stopping defenses, and making Peyton one dimensional only worked against a bad Minnesota secondary. The defense is having its own issues getting off the field though because they aren’t hard to figure out. They are in the top 2 against the pass, and the bottom 2 against the run. Losing the quarterback of the defense Bob Sanders, who seems to be in on every tackle that they make, changes this team drastically. As long as the defense struggles Peyton is going to have to find his way back to picking apart the other team with his arm. They find themselves playing three road games in October, first @Houston before coming back home to play a stingy Baltimore defense. Then it’s on the road to play a Green Bay team that has problems running the ball, and then a showdown with their best division rival in Nashville. They would be lucky to find themselves on the positive side of .500 after October, but the odds are that they are looking at 3-4 before Bob Sanders expected return somewhere in mid-November.
4.Houston Texans (0-3)
The hurricane forced them to play in somebody else’s stadium for all three of their games so far. But they were three tough games against three tough opponents for this young team. Despite having several playmakers on defense in Mario Williams, Demeco Ryans and Dunta Robinson, they’re surrendering too many points. The pass defense hasn’t been a problem for them despite only getting 3 sacks in 3 games, but the front seven has trouble against the run. The offense seems to be still finding their identity, as Steve Slaton needs to prove that he can run in between the tackles in addition to catching out of the backfield. Schaub was having a terrible year until the week 4 meeting with Jacksonville. He needs to get the ball into Andre Johnson’s hands if they want to succeed through the air. October provides the Texans with lots of opportunity as all 4 games will be played at home. First they meet up with Indianapolis before the load gets lighter with games vs. Miami, Detroit and Cincinnati. The odds of winning all four are very slim for them, but I wouldn’t say that 3 wins would be hard to come by because of the quality of opponents. I see 2-5 worst case scenario.

AFC East

1.Buffalo Bills (4-0)
Really stepping up since the fall of the Patriots. They are playing well for such a young team. Resiliency is a quality in football that you really want your team to have. Being able to fight back from any deficit late in the game no matter who you are playing takes guts. The defense made huge strides in free agency during the offseason, with Marcus Stroud plugging up the middle and the secondary much improved from being one of last year’s worst. The story on offense is the maturity of Trent Edwards as a passer. They are finding such great balance that they don’t need to rely on riding Marshawn Lynch all the way to the goal line, but instead can pick up some first downs by throwing. Add in some healthy special teams play from return men like McGee and McKelvin, and you have a pretty complete team. I think they are still some time away from being a championship team, but they are playing inspired football and are forcing you to take notice. Coming up on the schedule they travel to the desert to face the Cards, and then have a bye week before heading back home to face a pretty good Chargers team traveling cross-country before heading down to Miami. These are all winnable games, and the Chargers will really be an interesting matchup on both sides of the ball. They are looking at 6-1 at the very least heading into November, and there is no shame in that for this team.
2.New England Patriots (2-1)
The big picture for them is obviously the loss of the leader of the offense. But with Brady going down, you would think a quarterback who has been in the system for a few seasons would be able to step in and spread the ball to the many weapons that he has surrounding him, especially with the talented line he has in front of him. Well after a season where they put up at least 20 points every game (Super Bowl excluded), they haven’t been able to do that once yet this year. A problem I see is that they threw for such a high percentage of their plays last year, and now with Brady out and scaling back their offense to include more running plays isn’t clicking with that offensive line. Before he was hurt, Laurence Maroney was a non-factor. The running back committee just isn’t working out. But can all of this season’s mediocrity be attributed to the loss of Brady? Or did the formula for success against this team get figured out during the course of the playoffs last year? Well the defense has had trouble stopping the run, and considering the 3 teams that they’ve played, it’s not acceptable. They were second behind the Giants in sacks last year and have only picked up 6 so far this year. October presents the Pats with back-to-back west coast trips against the 49ers and Chargers, before a home stand against Denver and St. Louis. They need 3 games if they are going to keep pace with Buffalo (who would’ve thought that would be a possible scenario?) but I can only see them winning two.
3.New York Jets (2-2)
Needed to slowly teach Favre the offense before really unleashing him on the Cards in week 4. This is the Jets team that I believed we would see in the preseason. A perfect combination in a 3-4 defense that has a good pass rush and talented secondary capable of causing turnovers. After Favre’s supposed issue with chemistry with Laveranues Coles, he definitely put that to rest in the last game. A big reason for their success will also rely on the continued chemistry of the offensive line. The more they work together and begin to trust each other, the better production out of the offense. The areas in most need of improvement for them are getting Thomas Jones/Leon Washington going on the ground to establish a fluid passing game, and stop giving up the big plays on defense. If they can figure that out, they will definitely be in contention later in the season. October is a kind month to the Jets, as they start out with a bye week before a home-away-home series against Cincinnati, Oakland, and Kansas City. They should not be satisfied unless they come out of it 5-2.
4.Miami Dolphins (1-2)
The rebuilding stages of an NFL team take more than one offseason, but the Dolphins are a young and confident team. The win over the Patriots in week 3 was unexpected to most, but it’s not like they beat the Patriots of 2007. They don’t have very good personnel in the secondary and have lots of problems against the pass. They have been tight against the run, but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. The Jets, Cardinals, and Patriots aren’t exactly known for their ability to pound the rock. Bringing in Pennington was a boost for their offense simply because he’s strides better than anybody that they could’ve put in there to start the year. For the quality of receivers that he has beside him, he’s actually making due. The offensive line needs to keep the pressure off of him and open up holes for what was supposed to be a nice 1-2 of Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams. As long as they keep the turnover margin in the positives they can keep most of their games competitive. They start off October against the Chargers, and then travel out to Houston. Then the Fins return home to face the Ravens and Bills. Outside of pulling off an upset victory I can’t see them taking more than 1 of those games, and even that might be a stretch.

AFC West

1.Denver Broncos (3-1)
Have really turned out to be an explosive offense as Jay Cutler has come into his own. In Denver he gets a great offensive mind in Mike Shanahan, who knows how an offensive line should play and opens up the pass through a solid running game. Brandon Marshall has established himself as an upper-echelon receiver in the league and Eddie Royal is already making an impact as a rookie. Nobody would’ve guessed going into this season that the defense would be their main area of concern, especially their pass defense. If they have what was called the best cornerback pairing in the league, on top of that one of the best of all time back there, why are they struggling? I believe that they are being caught off-guard too much, and aren’t calling the right packages for the offenses they are facing. Because of the run defense being a problem for them recently, they are trying too hard to make up for it by surrendering the pass. The Chiefs took advantage of this week 4 by following up a strong run game with an efficient performance from their quarterback. They have the ability to put the points on the board, but in the playoffs you don’t want to be in a game where the first team to punt will lose. They have a tough 3 game stretch in October; luckily for them they have a strong record heading in. They get back-to-back home games against Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. Then they travel to face the Patriots before that bye week to end the month, where they can make any major adjustments to their defensive philosophy. Beating San Diego gave them some cushion, but if they want to stay ahead winning 2 of these games is ideal.
2.San Diego Chargers (2-2)
Losing Shawne Merriman has changed this defense. Quarterbacks are not afraid to throw on them, and it shows as they are dead last in passing yards allowed. Luckily for them, their offense has restored its old form as being one of the league’s most explosive. Philip Rivers is lighting up the other team’s d-backs while Tomlinson plays through injury and still performs. They had two tough losses to start out the year, both of which could have been avoided if that pass defense just buckled down for the closing moments of the game. They rebounded with a blowout win over the Jets and a 4^th quarter comeback against Oakland that shows just why they’re still one of the top teams. If you want to run a 3-4 defense, you need to be able to shut down the passing game, short and deep. They need to find a way to get themselves off the field on 3^rd down. October presents the Chargers with an increasingly harder stretch of games. First the travel to Miami before returning home against the Pats and then traveling out to face a potentially undefeated Buffalo team. They will need to make sure they don’t drain themselves completely in Buffalo, because from there they will travel to London to take on an explosive Saints offense. That stretch of games will definitely give us a gauge of where San Diego stands in the conference, and the London game will tell us if they have made any strides in their pass defense heading into their mid-season bye week.
3.Oakland Raiders (1-3)
After a strong offseason of free agent signings (Gibril Wilson, DeAngelo Hall, Javon Walker)and drafting the top running back in the draft, Oakland remains in the toilet bowl of the league. Al Davis has fired yet another coach, and the public bashing of Lane Kiffin was far from being good publicity for this team. The best justification that I see of Lane Kiffin’s firing is that he blew 2 fourth quarter leads in the last 2 games. Losing a late lead is a reflection of bad game management, which equals bad coaching. Rob Ryan has so much to work with but still can’t seem to get his defense back on top like it was a few seasons ago. He really has to go. The best thing for their offense is that they are still young, and they haven’t had Justin Fargas out there enough to show what they are truly capable of. Lots of traveling after this weekend’s bye. They travel to New Orleans, then head home to face the Jets, and then back to the east coast to Baltimore. There’s always next year, Raider fans.
4.Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)
This team is always an enigma when it comes down to pick’em. They can look bad against some of the worst teams (Oakland) and pull off big wins against good teams (Denver). With no decent options at quarterback, Larry Johnson needs to start playing like his old self and carry the offense on his shoulders. A strong running game can equal great ball control, thus wearing down the opposing defense while taking pressure off of your own to stop the other team. And this team’s sub-par defense needs that. Herm Edwards is hanging on by a thread here, because he hasn’t gotten it done for this team, just one playoff appearance and no wins. They have great young talent (Dwayne Bowe, Tamba Hali, Glenn Dorsey) to build the team around, but they really have to devise a game plan that gets the ball down the field through LJ and Tony Gonzalez. Up next for the Chiefs is a trip to Carolina before the bye week. They go back home to face the Titans and then go back on the road against the Jets. Their best bet for a win would be this weekend against a banged up Carolina offensive line, but even that might be a tough game to win. They should be far from playoff contenders by November.



This is a 100% original piece, and I write this with the intention of someone reading it, so please feel free to let me know what you think, not just with criticism about my analysis, but also about the piece of writing as a whole.