2008 NFC Quarterly Report - Q1

Mission Statement in the AFC Quarterly Blog.

The NFC has re-established itself as the more powerful conference with the fall of several great AFC teams. The NFC east is still the powerhouse of the conference, and I still expect both wild card spots to once again emerge from 2^nd and 3^rd place in that division. For the north, south, and west teams this means you must win your division if you want to play some January football. And the races in all three so far are tight and should come down to the wire. This is shaping up to be a great season to watch.

NFC North

1.Green Bay Packers (2-2)
The post-Favre era isn’t off to a good start. I say post-Favre rather than Aaron Rodgers because he hasn’t stepped in to claim the leadership role that Favre held on this team for all those years. A young quarterback’s best friend is a good running game to fall back on (ex: Manning, Rivers, and Roethlisberger). Ryan Grant is looking more and more like a half-year wonder every week (hate to say that I called it). I knew there was a reason that the Giants, a team that seems to know where they stand as far as the running back position goes(they have 5), would let this kid go instead of just throwing him into the depth chart. The offensive line hasn’t changed, and Rodgers has a few decent receiving targets. The defense is having its trouble stopping the run, and Al Harris is out in a man-coverage heavy defense. Now news of Rodgers having a sprained shoulder may mean sitting out at least a game. If that’s the case, Atlanta might be able to get their rushing attack going and pull of a victory this week in Lambeau. Then the Packers head to the west coast in a tough Seattle environment and back home against the Colts. 2 wins out of 3 would be ideal for them this month before the bye week, but I think they only win 1 and are below .500 at the midpoint.
2.Chicago Bears (2-2)
The big story for them is the great play of their offensive line. They’ve been opening up big holes for rookie gem Matt Forte, who is a dynamic runner with lots of ability. But they’ve also done a great job of keeping the pressure off Kyle Orton so he can make important throws when he needs to in order to manage the game for a Bears win. Unfortunately their game management hasn’t been great this year. Similar to the Chargers situation, the Bears losses have been because they allowed Carolina and Tampa to hang around and come back to win. Last week in Philadelphia could’ve been the same story if the defense didn’t buckle down like they did on the goal line. They need to figure out the right plays to call to extend their late drives and keep the clock running if they want to win one possession games all the time. The defense is back on track but still has its problems against good passing offenses. The Bears start divisional play this month. After a two game road trip to Detroit and Atlanta, they come back home to face the Vikings before their bye week. All of these matchups favor the way that they’ve been playing games this year, so unless one of those 3 teams can get back on track the Bears are starting at a very good 5-2 at the bye week.
3.Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
The NFC version of the Browns this season. They showed such great flashes last season that everyone had them as one of the Super Bowl contenders out of the conference this year. The Packers wouldn’t deal them Favre in the offseason after it was speculated they wanted him, and it’s apparent now that they could’ve used him. Tavaris Jackson is on the bench and Gus Frerotte is in. Their situation is looking worse than the Bears’. They can only ride Adrian Peterson so much throughout a game before it comes to a 3^rd and long where the QB needs to make a play. The stout run defense remains, but the secondary wasn’t shored up in the offseason, and they haven’t created the pass rush (7 sacks in 4 games) that they expected when adding Jared Allen. The Carolina win was a flash of brilliance from them, showing that they can buckle down and create turnovers sometimes, but until they start getting more consistent with that they will have a hard time winning close games. The Vikings travel to New Orleans on Monday night before returning home to face the Lions and travel back out to Chicago before the bye week. With Chicago cruising they need to start winning ball games, and I don’t know if they can pull one off outside of the Detroit game.
4.Detroit Lions (0-3)
Still one of the worst defenses in the league. Give up too many yards and too many points. They only have 3 sacks in their 3 games, and no interceptions. Jon Kitna isn’t an ideal choice at QB for anybody, but with the two tall, fast possession receivers that they have you would think it would be easy for a west coast-style attack to utilize them by opening up the run game with the pass. Well it’s not working. Their middle-of-the-pack passing game hasn’t been doing anything for their almost dead-last rushing offense. Millen finally got the boot, but that was long overdue. When you have that many high draft choices in a row you would think that you can turn it around into something positive. The rebuilding phase takes a little while, but they should have at least come close to the postseason by this point. The Lions start October against the Bears then have a two game road trip to Minnesota and Houston before the Redskins at home. Unless Houston figures out what they’re doing wrong, both teams might be winless when they meet and this may be the Lions best chance, maybe even their only chance for a win all season.

NFC South

1.Carolina Panthers (3-1)
I admire what John Fox has done with the franchise since leaving the position he held as the Giants’ defensive coordinator. Not only taking the team to their first Super Bowl, but he is consistently able to follow up down years with competitive ones, and that shows a great ability to adjust to injuries/retiring/free agent losses, which reflects greatly on the coach. Sure they needed late comebacks to win their first two games, but it was a smart move because September is usually the time of year where you want to take advantage of situations like that and be unconventional. What you see is pretty much what you get with the team. They have a nice duo at running back to gash defenses, but when they can’t get going, Delhomme needs to get the ball to his playmakers downfield. The lack of performance from the backs may be attributed to the schedule. They just snuck away from the Bears who have a good run defense and the Vikings had their number and showed the way to beat this team. The secondary has played really well, but that may also be partly attributed to the schedule. The patchwork offensive line is something to worry about. When you lose more than one starter it could mean disaster until they get back. Only time will tell if the Panthers can keep it up. Because of their favorable schedule throughout the year they will be in the playoff race until the end. October brings them a home game vs. the Chiefs before traveling out to rival Tampa Bay. Then they finish the month with two home games against the Saints and Cardinals. All four are winnable games if the Panthers can execute their game plan to perfection. Realistically I see them winning 2, 3 at the most, but will stay above .500 nonetheless.
2.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)
The divisional champions from last season, so their success isn’t really too much of a surprise. Gruden’s offensive mind has been at work all year and it’s about time that this team is no longer known just for their strong defense. With Griese stepping in for Garcia the offensive line is doing great at protecting him and making them one of the better passing teams. But the good news for them is that the strong D is still there. They’re consistently a defense that will cause problems for the other team and force the opposing quarterback to make bad throws. A bright spot for them has been the pass rush, and former 1^st round pick Gaines Adams is playing great football at defensive end. He is a young rising star. The Bucs have to travel to Mile High this week against a great matchup for their defense in Denver. They go home for back-to-back games with the Panthers and Seahawks before the end of the month matchup at Dallas. This is the hardest stretch of games for them all year, so it will be a great barometer for where the Bucs stand as far as contending for the playoffs goes. The Carolina game will be big in tie breaker scenarios. I think the Bucs, like Carolina, will at least have 5 wins going into November.
3.New Orleans Saints (2-2)
With all of the injuries that they’ve suffered 2-2 with both losses by 5 and 2 points is better than where they could be. Colston and Shockey out for extended time and the offense hasn’t missed a beat. Drew Brees is still top-5 caliber in the league, and making plays downfield without those 2 receiving threats is a great portrayal of that. The running game seems to be getting back on track as they ease Deuce back in as a mainstay tailback. I’m still not drinking the Reggie Bush kool-aid. The defense is still having its problems though. Even though they have a healthy pass rush, they give up a lot of yards through the air. Vilma has been great but the run defense took another hit now with Sedrick Ellis to miss several games. If they can’t keep producing turnovers, they’re going to be in a lot of shootouts this year. Back-to-back home games against the Vikings and Raiders before traveling to Carolina. Then the big trip to London to face the Chargers. If the Saints can’t solve their problems on defense, 2 games are the most that they can win this month. They might have a hard time keeping up with Carolina and Tampa.
4.Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
I’m surprised that they’re playing .500 ball right now, but I don’t know how long it can keep up. Their secondary has been pretty much exposed for what it is. Like I said earlier the best friend for a young QB is a great run game. “The Burner” Turner has showed that he deserves to be a starting back in this league, and when he’s on he makes Matt Ryan look good. Him and Norwood make for one of the top rushing attacks in the league. But so far Matt Ryan has not “won” his team a game yet. He’s still the best option for them, and putting him in right away was the best move. The best way to learn in the league in on the field. So considering that and the fact that they’re also in rebuild mode, I’ll give them a pass on the bad play, because it was expected. John Abraham is a big bright spot for the defense. Tough month for them, traveling to Green Bay, then home against Chicago. After their bye week they finish the month in Philadelphia. The Green Bay game is the most winnable of those three for them, especially if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play. 2-5 is what it’s looking like by November.

NFC Beast (East)
1.New York Giants (3-0)
So much for playing the “no respect” card any longer. After being consistently behind Dallas from the day after the Super Bowl, to being picked to finish last in the division when Osi Umenyiora went down, they are now atop most rankings lists. I love their old school formula to win games: behind a strong offensive line, run the ball effectively. Use your big bruising running back to wear down the defense, while subbing in the speedy change of pace back to catch the other team off guard with draw plays and finish games in the 4^th quarter. Create easy and manageable 3^rd downs for your quarterback. If the quarterback arrives at a long situation, he has plenty of weapons around him to spread out the defense and find the open man while protecting the football. On the defensive side of the ball, blitz from any and all angles, while shutting down the run and not allowing anything deep. It may not be as flashy as some other offenses like Denver and Dallas, but it sure is effective. They start the month sans-Burress for one game, the Seahawks at home. Then it’s a game in Cleveland on MNF followed by a home game against the 49ers. The month ends in Pittsburgh. The only bump in the road appears to be if the Steelers solve their issues on offense. They need to go into that November 2^nd matchup in Dallas with a maximum of 1 loss.
2.Washington Redskins (3-1)
It took a week for them to find their groove offensively, but since that first game they have looked very good. Jason Campbell has looked comfortable throwing the ball downfield and has no interceptions. He trusts his o-line to protect him and has a good rushing attack behind him to fall back on. The secondary has been able to cope with losing Sean Taylor and slow down three great passing offenses in a row (Saints, Cardinals, Cowboys). Their biggest concern, in addition to staying healthy, should be to shut down the run, which luckily Dallas took away for them in week 4. They start the month in rival Philadelphia, and then have a home stand against the Rams and Browns before traveling to Detroit. Should be a one loss maximum for them, which is all they can allow if they want to keep pace in the division.
3.Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
It’s no secret what they have to offer. But the problem for everyone else is that you can’t stop it. They have a strong offensive line that is nearly impossible to get any blitzes to hit home on. This lets Tony Romo have all the time in the world to get the ball downfield, and he has enough weapons that somebody is open. When they actually give him the ball, Marion Barber can make a man miss and pick up healthy amounts of yards. And they also create a good pass rush out of the 3-4 scheme. My main criticism for them is the coaching. They have all the talent in the world on both sides of the ball, but sometimes they refuse to run the ball and have too many breakdowns defensively. Sometimes it’s underneath, and other times it’s the deep ball. I truly believe they can’t win the big one until Wade Phillips is gone. He’ll need at least 2 playoff wins to keep his job. Start the month vs. the Bengals before a road trip to Arizona and St. Louis. They return home to face the hardest test of October in the Buccaneers. This should be a tough game, but they’re such a good team they should be riding a nice win streak heading into the big matchup at New York in November at 7-1.
4.Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
With McNabb healthy and playing well they’re still in the mix. DeSean Jackson is making his claim at offensive rookie of the year and has been more than just a return threat. When Brian Westbrook is healthy he is still the best player on the field for them. How Jim Johnson hasn’t been considered for a head coaching job is beyond me if his protégé Steve Spagnuolo of the Giants has been getting consideration. He always dials up the perfect blitzes that he knows his players can execute, and as a result they lead the league in sacks. Asante Samuel has been suspect to getting beat every now and then, but on paper the Eagles have a pretty good secondary. The biggest improvement for them as opposed to last year is the ability to shut down the run. The defense has a mighty front seven. Divisional home game against the Redskins to start the month and then a west coast trip to San Francisco before the bye. They finish October home vs. the Falcons. They will be hungry this week against the Redskins, and again in order to keep pace with the other they need to win every game here. 1 loss maximum for them this month also.

NFC West

1.Arizona Cardinals (2-2)
The one thing that stands out about the Cardinals is that they play exactly as they appear on paper. They have too many weapons in the passing game not to produce, and the defense is inconsistent vs. the pass and run that they are in the middle of the pack. This translates to having good playmakers back there that are prone to making mistakes. Edgerrin James has passed his prime and is now looking to be a non-factor in their offense. Kurt Warner is having his usual issues of protecting the football, but he’s still putting points on the board. The best news for them is that the other teams in the division are playing just as good or worse than them. Back-to-back home games against Buffalo and Dallas before the bye week. Then they travel to Carolina to finish the first half of the season. Unless they can surprise one of these teams on defense, they’re looking at being a sub-.500 team before November.
2.San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
Getting there, but still not emerging as a top team. The big setback was of course starting a #1 overall quarterback who clearly isn’t getting it done. But you can’t blame them, because a pick that high is an investment that you have to get the most out of before it’s time to bail out. JT O’Sullivan has picked up Mike Martz’s system well, and he is playing well enough for a first year starter that you have to expect the growing pains that come with it. Frank Gore is back to his old self, being a big reason for the offense getting downfield because of the respect that defenses have to show for him. The defense is still a little unpredictable. They have some outstanding position players but they also have some holes that they need to take care of. I don’t think their defensive philosophy is the right one for them, because they can’t man up with opposing offenses as well as they would like. As much as I like Mike Nolan I can see him on the way out soon. The 49ers face a really tough stretch in October. After home games against the Patriots and Eagles, they travel to face the Giants and then return back to the west coast for a home game with rival Seattle. I don’t think they can escape with more than 1 win, but that still probably keeps them in the division race.
3.Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
Down but not out, especially for any team coached by Mike Holmgren. So far he hasn’t started his final year as well as he would’ve liked. They caught the injury bug pretty bad, which can always be a cause for a disasterous year. Luckily for them they will finally get their best receivers Engram and Branch back on the field. Julius Jones had big games against San Francisco and St. Louis, but a real test remains to be seen. The front seven has played pretty well, racking up some sacks and shutting down the rushing attack pretty well. They’ve been having their problems against the pass though. Buffalo, San Francisco, and St. Louis aren’t the kind of teams you want to have problems against the pass. It will be interesting to see how Seattle comes off the bye week. First up is an east coast trip at the Giants and returning home to face the Packers. They finish October traveling to Tampa Bay and San Fran. If they can get back on track with the return of their receivers, 3 of those games are very winnable. I can see them winning 2, which still means they will be right in the mix with Arizona and San Francisco.
4.St. Louis Rams (0-4)
The mess of the NFC. They would probably get blown out by the Lions at this point. Getting rid of Linehan seemed to be the right move after they nearly pulled off the upset against Buffalo. It hurts to think that if they started Marc Bulger they could’ve easily taken a win away from that game. You have to feel for guys like Steven Jackson and Torry Holt, who seem to be great players stuck in the middle of nowhere. The defense can’t stop anyone, and the offense seems to be stuck in the past of their old glory days. Anything works against this team, and they will probably come away with the top pick in next year’s draft. After a bye week October presents the Rams with an away-home-away against Washington-Dallas-New England, which looks like it’s spelling 0-7 and winless at the midpoint of the season.


This is a 100% original piece, and I write this with the intention of someone reading it, so please feel free to let me know what you think, not just with criticism about my analysis, but also about the piece of writing as a whole.