PGP's 2008 MLB Mock Draft

[Jerome]

Updated: 6/5/08

First Round:
1. - Tim Beckham SS Griffin HS (GA) Sr.
Previous Projection: Buster Posey C Florida State Jr.
2. - Pedro Alvarez 3B Vanderbilt Jr.
Previous Projection: Pedro Alvarez 3B Vanderbilt Jr.
3. - Eric Hosmer 1B American Heritage HS (FL) Sr.
Previous Projection: Eric Hosmer 1B American Heritage HS (FL) Sr.
4. - Brian Matusz LHP San Diego Jr.
Previous Projection: Brian Matusz LHP San Diego Jr.
5. - Buster Posey C Florida State Jr.
Previous Projection: Tim Beckham SS Griffin HS (GA) Sr.
6. - Kyle Skipworth C Patriot HS (CA) Sr.
Previous Projection: Kyle Skipworth C Patriot HS (CA) Sr.
7. - Gordon Beckham SS Georgia Jr.
Previous Projection: Gordon Beckham SS Georgia Jr.
8. - Brett Wallace 1B Arizona State Jr.
Previous Projection: Brett Wallace 1B Arizona State Jr.
9. - Aaron Crow RHP Missouri Jr.
Previous Projection: Aaron Crow RHP Missouri Jr.
10. - Andrew Cashner RHP Texas Christian Jr.
Previous Projection: Andrew Cashner RHP Texas Christian Jr.
11. - Aaron Hicks OF Wilson HS (CA) Sr.
Previous Projection: Aaron Hicks OF Wilson HS (CA) Sr.
12. - Justin Smoak 1B South Carolina Jr.
Previous Projection: Justin Smoak 1B South Carolina Jr.
13. - Brett Lawrie UTI Brookswood SS (BC)
Previous Projection: Brett Lawrie UTI Brookswood SS (BC)
14. - Zach Collier OF Chino Hills HS (CA) Sr.
Previous Projection: Zach Collier OF Chino Hills HS (CA) Sr.
15. - Ethan Martin RHP Stephens County HS (GA) Sr.
Previous Projection: Jake Odorizzi RHP Highland HS (IL) Sr.
16. - Jason Castro C Stanford Jr.
Previous Projection: Anthony Hewitt OF Salisbury HS (CT) Sr.
17. - Yonder Alonso 1B Miami (FL) Jr.
Previous Projection: Yonder Alonso 1B Miami (FL) Jr.
18. (from ATL for Type A Tom Glavine)- Jemile Weeks 2B Miami (FL) Jr.
Previous Projection: Jason Castro C Stanford Jr.
19. - Anthony Hewitt OF Salisbury HS (CT) Sr.
Previous Projection: Brett DeVall LHP Niceville HS (FL) Sr.
20. - Christian Friedrich LHP Eastern Kentucky Jr.
Previous Projection: Christian Friedrich LHP Eastern Kentucky Jr.
21. - Ryan Perry RHP Arizona Jr.
Previous Projection: Ethan Martin RHP Stephens County HS (GA) Sr.
22. - Ike Davis OF Arizona State Jr.
Previous Projection: Ryan Perry RHP Arizona Jr.
23. - Shooter Hunt RHP Tulane Jr.
Previous Projection: Shooter Hunt RHP Tulane Jr.
24. - Casey Kelly SS Sarasota HS (FL) Sr.
Previous Projection: Casey Kelly SS Sarasota HS (FL) Sr.
25. - Jake Odorizzi RHP Highland HS (IL) Sr.
Previous Projection: David Cooper 1B California Jr.
26. - Joshua Fields RHP Georgia Sr.
Previous Projection: Joshua Fields RHP Georgia Sr.
27. (from LAA for Type A Torii Hunter)- Daniel Schlereth LHP Arizona Sr.
Previous Projection: Daniel Schlereth LHP Arizona Sr.
28. - Mike Montgomery LHP Hart HS (CA) Sr.
Previous Projection: Mike Montgomery LHP Hart HS (CA) Sr.
29. - Reese Havens SS South Carolina Jr.
Previous Projection: Jemile Weeks 2B Miami (FL) Jr.
30. - Adrian Nieto C American Heritage HS (FL) Sr.
Previous Projection: Adrian Nieto C American Heritage HS (FL) Sr.

Compensation Round:
31. (for Type A Torii Hunter)- Conor Gillaspie 3B Wichita State Jr.
32. (for Type A Francisco Cordero)- Brad Holt RHP UNC Wilmington Jr.
33. (for Type A Tom Glavine)- Lance Lynn RHP Mississippi Jr.
34. (for Type A Aaron Rowand)- Isaac Galloway OF Los Osos HS (CA) Sr.
35. (for Type A Scott Linebrink)- James Darnell 3B South Carolina Jr.
36. (for Type B David Riske)- Brett DeVall LHP Niceville HS (FL) Sr.
37. (for Type B Pedro Feliz)- Gerrit Cole RHP Lutheran HS (CA) Sr.
38. (for Type B Trever Miller)- Bryan Price RHP Rice Jr.
39. (for Type B Troy Percival)- Brett Hunter RHP Pepperdine Jr.
40. (for Type B Ron Mahay)- Wade Miley LHP Southeastern Louisiana Jr.
41. (for Type B Jason Kendall)- Tyson Ross RHP Cal Jr.
42. (for Type B Doug Brocail)- David Cooper 1B California Jr.
43. (for Type B Livan Hernandez)- Anthony Gose OF Bellflower HS (CA) Sr.
44. (for Type B Luis Vizcaino)- Destin Hood OF St. Paul’s Episcopal HS (AL) Sr.
45. (for Type B Eric Gagne)- Ryan Westmoreland OF Portsmouth HS (RI) Sr.
46. (for Type B Mike Cameron)- Dennis Raben OF Miami (FL) Jr.

Second Round:
47. - Tyler Sample RHP Mullen HS (CO) Sr.
48. - Aaron Weatherford RHP Mississippi State Jr.
49. - Kyle Lobstein LHP Coconino HS (AZ) Sr.
50. - Jake Jefferies C UC Davis Jr.
51. (from SF for Type A Aaron Rowand)- Robbie Ross LHP Lexington Christian Academy (KY) Sr.
52. - Wes Freeman OF All Saints Academy (FL) Sr.
53. (from CIN for Type A Francisco Cordero)- Seth Linz RHP Marshall County HS (TN) Sr.
54. (from CWS for Type A Scott Linebrink)- Stephen Fife RHP Utah Jr.
55. - Chris Gloor LHP Quinnipiac Jr.
56. - Ross Seaton RHP Second Baptist HS (TX) Sr.
57. - Bobby Bundy RHP Sperry HS (OK) Sr.
58. - Scott Gorgen RHP UC Irvine Jr.
59. - Allan Dykstra 1B Wake Forest Jr.
60. - Brad Hand LHP Chaska HS (MN) Sr.
61. - Xavier Avery OF Cedar Grove HS (GA) Sr.
62. - Roger Kieschnik OF Texas Tech Jr.
63. - Ryan Flaherty SS Vanderbilt Jr.
64. - Michael Palazzone RHP Lassiter HS (GA) Sr.
65. - Logan Forsythe 3B Arkansas Jr.
66. - Robbie Grossman OF Cy-Fair HS (TX) Sr.
67. - Petey Paramore C Arizona State Jr.
68. - Scott Barnes LHP St. John’s Jr.
69. - Cody Satterwhite RHP Mississippi Jr.
70. (for Joshua Fields)- Zach Cone OF Parkview HS (GA) Sr.
71. - Zach Stewart RHP Texas Tech Jr.
72. - Gabe Jacobo 3B Sacramento State Jr.
73. - Tyler Ladendorf SS Howard JC (TX) So.
74. - Cutter Dykstra 2B Westlake HS (CA) Sr.
75. - Eric Thames OF Pepperdine Jr.
76. - Zach Putnam RHP Michigan Jr.
77. - Anthony Ferrara LHP Riverview HS (FL) Sr.

[Chubz]

its like xmas in April

[Jerome]

updated

[TelfairNyCOG]

I love the Weeks pick for the Mets, but how come you have Jacob Thompson going to us over the likes of Gerrit Cole, Cutter Dykstra or Cole St. Claire? Also, what do you project Thompson to become, as I don't know anything about his game.

[Jerome]

Originally Posted by TelfairNyCOG I love the Weeks pick for the Mets, but how come you have Jacob Thompson going to us over the likes of Gerrit Cole, Cutter Dykstra or Cole St. Claire? Also, what do you project Thompson to become, as I don't know anything about his game.

i would love the mets to pick up weeks as well, but this was the first draft and to tell you the truth he could likely go to the brew-crew, who drafted him out of high school, or more than likely the jays at number 17, who always seem to be obsessed with middle-infielders early in the draft. he doesn't have the pop his brother does, but he can pick, and projects well out of the two hole.

as for cole, i think he's the top pitcher overall in the draft. i've seen him a half dozen times, and his stuff is without question some of the best in the draft. however, the mets under the minaya regime like polished, low risk collegiate arms, and with the massive contract cole is going to seek (he's another boras advisee), i see him sliding to the bottom of the first round. thompson seems the better bet at this point. i really like st. clair, but rice pitchers have a record for being injury prone (st. clair's medical history is not without blemishes), and this is going to be cause for him to slide possibly into the second round. cutter dykstra is more of a fourth-outfielder type, utility player anyway, and won't see much interest in the first round.

thompson is a very polished arm, again with a virtually non-existent ceiling similar to that of a jason windsor. he has bottom of the rotation stuff, possibly worthy of a supplemental round selection, but a strong season will likely get him selected in the bottom of the first round. again, this selection is less of a best player available selection, and more indicative of the mets selection of polished collegiate arms recently.

[nwdave]

from someone who knows nothing about this, what makes Pedro Alvarez worth the first pick? Is it more team need or more best player available?

and if you have time, what can you tell me about Tyson Ross?

[Jerome]

Originally Posted by nwdave from someone who knows nothing about this, what makes Pedro Alvarez worth the first pick? Is it more team need or more best player available? and if you have time, what can you tell me about Tyson Ross?

r.j. harrison does not follow a drafting for need philosophy, and drafts solely based on who he and his scouts think is the best player available. alvarez appears to be that player by consensus, although i personally feel tim beckham is the best player available in this draft. alvarez is a smooth hitter with a polished approach at the plate. he has good power, primarily to the gaps and should rack up a fair number of doubles at the big league level, a great stroke, and pretty good plate discipline, though not nearly on the same level as yonder alonso. while alonso is a pure hitter who can slug with the best of them, alvarez brings a fair skill set defensively, and plays the hot corner, certainly a position in demand right now at the big league level. he's also a fairly sure fire bet to move quickly through the system to help the big club, though with longoria manning the hot corner in the future, this isn't necessarily a huge draw for the rays. the rays could also look toward an arm, though reports the rays would even consider matusz with this selection is laughable considering he's little more than a number three in the rotation. should they go for an arm, aaron crow will be the selection here at this point in the season.

as far as tyson ross goes, he has great size and very projectable frame, though his stuff is far from electric and doesn't wow me in the least. he really only as two pitches at this point in his fastball and developing curve, as his change-up due to his arm action would only be so-so at the big league level. he's the type of pitcher who should get looks at the middle of the first round, though i don't see him falling far from that. ross is a college arm that still needs a great deal of work, and is a bit of a hit and miss type prospect at this point. he should sign for slot, though i see him working out as little more than a five in a big league rotation, possibly finding a home as a long reliever in the big leagues. a lot of how he develops is going to fall on the hands of the organization that picks him up, as he could develop into a serviceable starter in the big leagues, but it's going to take a lot of work to get him there. this is not a deep draft class at all (besides at first base, possible middle relievers and middle of the rotation starters,), so a selection like this at 20 shouldn't get you down too much. compared to last years draft class, this one certainly leaves much to be desired.

[nwdave]

it's really interesting how much projection and estimation goes into drafting MLB players. such a far cry from how the NBA or even NFL operates, at least with the top prospects.

anyway, very interesting stuff as always. thanks for the post man

[Jerome]

Originally Posted by nwdave it's really interesting how much projection and estimation goes into drafting MLB players. such a far cry from how the NBA or even NFL operates, at least with the top prospects. anyway, very interesting stuff as always. thanks for the post man

not a problem. anytime dave.

there's definitely a sharp contrast between baseball's draft and player development and that of the other major sports. in baseball, the draft is essentially all projection, and players are given years of competition at various levels in the minor leagues to season and hone their abilities. in basketball, players are reliant on getting as many minutes as possible early in their careers. that's why we some some of the younger players instead of rotting on the bench waiting for garbage minutes, participating in the d-league or international players given a few extra years overseas so they can get those minutes. in football, it's all about reps in practice and garbage time as the season winds down. from a player development perspective, it's hard to argue there is one more efficient and beneficial to the quality of the professional game than the player development system in major league baseball.

[TelfairNyCOG]

So you think Gerritt Cole has the best stuff in the draft, yet he's gonna slip so hard? This isn't going to be another Detroit Tigers like thing when they snuck up to get Porcello is it? Or is Cole considered to be of inferior quality then Porcello?

[Jerome]

Originally Posted by TelfairNyCOG So you think Gerritt Cole has the best stuff in the draft, yet he's gonna slip so hard? This isn't going to be another Detroit Tigers like thing when they snuck up to get Porcello is it? Or is Cole considered to be of inferior quality then Porcello?

you can't really compare cole to porcello, considering they're entirely different pitchers with different situations. the only similarity is they both share the same representation. porcello is much more polished than cole is, cole has a higher ceiling in my belief, and they have different arsenals and approaches on the hill. i do expect cole to fall in the draft due to "signability" concerns, and this is nothing new to the draft. for instance, in the past few years i can name quite a few examples just off the top of my head (and they're many more in the deeper rounds): mark teixeira, joe borchard, jeremy guthrie, stephen drew, andy laroche, jered weaver, luke hochevar (in 2005), craig hansen, and andrew miller, lars anderson, porcello, among many others just in the last two years.

since no slotting system exists in the mlb draft as there does in the nba and nfl, players sliding into the deeper rounds due to demand bonuses, strong desires to attend college or stay in school, or the different phases of the moon: it's all part of the drafts unpredictability.

[icedragon770]

more pitching

[nwdave]

Originally Posted by Jerome in baseball, the draft is essentially all projection, and players are given years of competition at various levels in the minor leagues to season and hone their abilities.

The feelings of validation/vindication that scouts and organization ppl must feel when one of these prospects develops into a solid everyday player must be huge.

I also imagine the stress of trying to evaluate and project for these guys who are so far away from the bigs is pretty exhausting.

[Chubz]

already on page 2 on google for 2008 MLB Mock draft